| What
is a Margin of Error and why is it important? |
CNN/USA
Today/Gallup Poll.
Jan 9-11 |
| "Next,
I'm going to read a list of people who may be running
in the Democratic primary for president in the next
election. After I read all the names, please tell
me which of those candidates you would be most likely
to support for the Democratic nomination for president
in the year 2004.. . ." Names rotated |
|
1/9-11 |
1/2-5 |
12/15-16 |
12/11-14 |
12/5-7 |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Wesley
Clark |
20 |
20 |
12 |
10 |
17 |
| Howard
Dean |
26 |
24 |
27 |
31 |
25 |
| Joe
Lieberman |
9 |
10 |
12 |
13 |
10 |
| John
Kerry |
9 |
11 |
7 |
10 |
7 |
| Dick
Gephardt |
7 |
9 |
7 |
8 |
14 |
| John
Edwards |
7 |
6 |
6 |
4 |
7 |
| Al
Sharpton |
3 |
2 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
| Carol
Moseley Braun |
4 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
| Dennis
Kucinich |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
| Other/None/No
opinion |
14 |
15 |
18 |
15 |
10 |
|
 |
| Latest
stats: 410 Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide
who are registered to vote. |
| Margin
of Error ± 5 |
 |
Newsweek Poll
Jan 8-9
by Princeton Survey Research Associates
|
(PLEASE
NOTE THE ODD WORDING, there is a subtle difference
from "who would you vote for?)
"Now I'm going to name nine Democrats in the
race for president. After I read you their names,
tell me which ONE you would
most like to see nominated as the Democratic
Party's presidential candidate in 2004. Here are
the choices . . . ."
(Names rotated) |
|
1/8-9 |
12/18-19 |
12/11-12 |
11/6-7 |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Howard Dean |
24 |
26 |
24 |
16 |
| Wesley Clark |
12 |
15 |
12 |
15 |
| Joe Lieberman |
7 |
7 |
12 |
8 |
| John Kerry |
11 |
6 |
5 |
7 |
| Dick Gephardt |
12 |
5 |
10 |
9 |
| Al Sharpton |
5 |
7 |
5 |
4 |
| Carol Moseley Braun |
4 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
| John Edwards |
3 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
| Dennis Kucinich |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
| Other (vol.) |
1 |
2 |
|
1 |
| None (vol.) |
3 |
5 |
|
4 |
| Don't know |
15 |
20 |
17 |
21 |
|
|
|
| Latest
stats: 357 registered Democrats and independents
who lean Democratic nationwide |
| Margin
of Error ± 6 |
|
FOX
News/Opinion Dynamics Poll
Nov 18-19 |
| "I'm
going to read you a list of names of some possible
candidates for the Democratic nomination for president
in the next election. If a 2004 Democratic primary
for president were held today, which ONE of the
following candidates would you most likely vote
for?" If "Not sure," ask: "Well,
to whom do you lean at this time?"Names rotated |
|
1/7-8 |
11/18-19 |
|
% |
% |
| Wesley
Clark |
13 |
14 |
| Howard
Dean |
20 |
18 |
|
Joe Lieberman |
8 |
10 |
| John
Kerry |
7 |
8 |
| Dick
Gephardt |
7 |
9 |
| John
Edwards |
4 |
3 |
| Carol
Moseley Braun |
4 |
3 |
| Al
Sharpton |
2 |
2 |
| Dennis
Kucinich |
3 |
2 |
| Someone
else/Other (vol.) |
5 |
6 |
| Wouldn't
vote (vol.)/Not sure |
27 |
25 |
|
|
| Latest
stats: 319 registered Democrats nationwide |
| Margin
of Error ± ~6 |
|
AP Poll
conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Jan 5-7 |
| "It
is early, but if you had to choose today, which
ONE of the following nine candidates would you be
most likely to support for the Democratic nomination
for president? . . ." |
|
1/5-7 |
11/18-20
& Dec 1-3 |
|
% |
% |
| Howard Dean |
30 |
18 |
| Wesley Clark |
17 |
14 |
| John Kerry |
5 |
13 |
| Joe Lieberman |
12 |
10 |
| Carol Moseley Braun |
2 |
4 |
| Dick Gephardt |
11 |
14 |
| John Edwards |
6 |
6 |
| Al Sharpton |
- |
4 |
| Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
2 |
| Other/None/Not sure |
15 |
15 |
|
|
|
PLEASE NOTE THE EXTREMELY
SMALL SAMPLE
|
Latest
stats: 241
Likely Democratic presidential primary/caucus voters nationwide |
| Margin
of Error ± 6.4 |
|
|
CNN/Time Poll
Nov. 18-19, 2003
conducted by Harris Interactive.
|
| "Thinking
ahead to the 2004 presidential election, if you
were asked to vote for a Democratic presidential
nominee for president today, which of the following
Democrats would you vote for? . . ." |
|
12/30-01/01 |
11/03 |
|
% |
% |
| Howard Dean |
22 |
14 |
| Wesley Clark |
8 |
12 |
| John Kerry |
10 |
9 |
| Joe Lieberman |
9 |
11 |
| Carol Moseley Braun |
2 |
4 |
| Dick Gephardt |
7 |
6 |
| John Edwards |
5 |
5 |
| Al Sharpton |
6 |
5 |
| Dennis Kucinich |
5 |
2 |
| Other |
3 |
9 |
| Not sure |
23 |
23 |
|
| |
| Latest
stats: 399 registered Democrats and independents
who lean Democratic nationwide |
| Margin
of Error ± 4.9 |
|
Zogby
America Poll
Nov 3-5 |
| "...
If the Democratic primary for president were held
today and the candidates were [see below],
for whom would you vote?" (Names rotated) |
|
11/3-5 |
10/15-18 |
9/22-24 |
9/3-5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Howard Dean |
15 |
12 |
12 |
16 |
| Wesley Clark |
10 |
10 |
12 |
3 |
| John Kerry |
7 |
9 |
7 |
13 |
| Joe Lieberman |
9 |
8 |
5 |
12 |
| Carol Moseley Braun |
2 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
| Dick Gephardt |
9 |
5 |
6 |
8 |
| John Edwards |
3 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
| Al Sharpton |
4 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
| Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
| Other |
6 |
6 |
3 |
3 |
| Not sure |
34 |
38 |
43 |
38 |
| Bob Graham |
n/a |
n/a |
1 |
- |
|
| |
| Latest
stats: 558 likely Democratic voters
nationwide |
| Margin
of Error ± 4.2 |
|
|
Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report Poll
Nov. 4-6, 18-20, 2003
|
| "It
is early, but if you had to choose today, which
ONE of the following nine candidates would you be
most likely to support for the Democratic nomination
for president? . . ." |
|
11/4-6 & 18-20 |
|
% |
| Howard Dean |
20 |
| Wesley Clark |
16 |
| John Kerry |
10 |
| Joe Lieberman |
12 |
| Carol Moseley Braun |
3 |
| Dick Gephardt |
14 |
| John Edwards |
5 |
| Al Sharpton |
3 |
| Dennis Kucinich |
4 |
| Other |
1 |
| Not sure |
12 |
|
| |
| Latest
stats: 527 likely Democratic voters
nationwide |
| Margin
of Error ± 4.4 |
| |
|
| The
Los Angeles Times Poll. Nov. 15-18, 2003. |
| "If
the presidential primary or caucus were being held
in your state today, and the candidates were [see
below], for whom would you vote?" |
|
11/15-18 |
|
% |
| Howard Dean |
12 |
| Wesley Clark |
11 |
| Joe Lieberman |
11 |
| John Kerry |
7 |
| Dick Gephardt |
10 |
| Al Sharpton |
3 |
| Carol Moseley Braun |
4 |
| John Edwards |
3 |
| Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
| Other (vol.) |
1 |
| Don't know |
37 |
|
|
|
| Latest
stats: N=662 Asked of Democratic primary and
caucus voters nationwide. |
| Margin
of Error ± 4 (total sample). |
|
NBC
News/Wall Street Journal Poll
Nov. 8-10, 2003.
Fieldwork by Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R) |
| "Let
me mention some people who might seek the Democratic
nomination for president in 2004. If the next
Democratic primary for president were being held
today, for which one of the following candidates
would you vote: [see below]?" If "Not
sure," ask: "Well, which way do you lean?" |
|
12/14 |
12/13 |
11/8-10 |
|
% |
% |
% |
| Howard Dean |
25 |
29 |
15 |
| Wesley Clark |
11 |
10 |
17 |
| Joe Lieberman |
9 |
7 |
11 |
| John Kerry |
5 |
6 |
11 |
| Dick Gephardt |
11 |
12 |
12 |
| Al Sharpton |
2 |
6 |
4 |
| Carol Moseley Braun |
2 |
3 |
3 |
| John Edwards |
3 |
5 |
5 |
| Dennis Kucinich |
4 |
2 |
3 |
| Other (vol.) |
1 |
- |
1 |
| None (vol.) |
5 |
4 |
6 |
| Don't know |
21 |
16 |
12 |
|
|
|
| Latest
stats: N=~500 Asked of Democrats, and non-Democrats
who said they would vote in a Democratic presidential
primary. |
| Margin
of Error ± ~ 4.5 |
| |
|
|
The Marist College Poll.
Oct. 27-29, 2003.
|
| "Now
I'm going to name nine Democrats in the race for
president. After I read you their names, tell me
which ONE you would most like to see nominated as
the Democratic Party's presidential candidate in
2004. Here are the choices . . . ."
(Names rotated) |
|
10/27-29 |
|
% |
| Howard Dean |
16 |
| Wesley Clark |
8 |
| Joe Lieberman |
12 |
| John Kerry |
9 |
| Dick Gephardt |
10 |
| Al Sharpton |
5 |
| Carol Moseley Braun |
3 |
| John Edwards |
4 |
| Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
|
Other/Not sure |
32 |
|
|
|
| 339
Democrats and independents nationwide. |
| Margin
of Error ± 5.5 |
|
|
The CBS News Poll.
Dec. 21-22
|
|
"Who would you like to see the Democratic
Party nominate as its presidential candidate
in 2004, or someone else?" Names
rotated |
|
12/21-22 |
11/10-13 |
|
% |
% |
| Howard Dean |
16 |
14 |
| Wesley Clark |
10 |
9 |
| Joe Lieberman |
6 |
9 |
| John Kerry |
4 |
7 |
| Dick Gephardt |
9 |
12 |
| Al Sharpton |
2 |
3 |
| Carol Moseley
Braun |
6 |
4 |
| John Edwards |
5 |
2 |
| Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
2 |
| Other |
16 |
10 |
|
Don't know |
24 |
28 |
|
|
|
PLEASE NOTE THE EXTREMELY
SMALL SAMPLE
|
| Latest
stats: N=244 likely Democrats and independents
nationwide. |
| Margin
of Error ± ?? |
|
|
The Harris Poll.
Dec 10-16, 2003.
|
|
"Which of the following Democratic presidential
candidates have you heard of? . . . And which one
of these would you prefer to be the Democratic candidate?" |
|
12/10-16 |
10/14-19/03 |
|
% |
% |
|
Joe Lieberman |
10 |
13 |
|
Wesley Clark |
7 |
12 |
|
Howard Dean |
21 |
11 |
|
John Kerry |
4 |
10 |
|
Richard Gephardt |
7 |
8 |
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
6 |
5 |
|
Al Sharpton |
6 |
5 |
| John
Edwards |
3 |
4 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
3 |
|
Other/Not sure |
34 |
29 |
|
|
|
| Latest
stats: N=393 Democrats and Democratic-leaning
independents nationwide. |
| Margin
of Error ± 4 |
|
ABC
News/Washington Post
Poll.
Dec 18-21, 2003.
Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch. |
| "If the 2004
Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your
state were being held today, and the candidates
were [see below], for whom would you vote?"
Names rotated |
|
12/18-21 |
12/10-14 |
10/26-29 |
10/9-13 |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Howard
Dean |
31 |
20 |
17 |
16 |
| Richard
Gephardt |
9 |
6 |
14 |
14 |
| Wesley
Clark |
7 |
7 |
14 |
13 |
| John
Kerry |
8 |
7 |
8 |
11 |
| Joseph
Lieberman |
8 |
12 |
13 |
10 |
| Carol
Moseley Braun |
4 |
3 |
3s |
6 |
| Al
Sharpton |
4 |
7 |
7 |
4 |
| John
Edwards |
5 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
| Dennis
Kucinich |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
| None
(vol.) |
5 |
12 |
5 |
9 |
| Wouldn't
vote (vol.) |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
| No
opinion |
14 |
20 |
10 |
12 |
|
|
|
| Latest
stats: N=(unknown) Registered voters nationwide
who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents |
| Margin
of Error ± 4 |
|
|
Quinnipiac University Poll.
Oct. 29-Nov 3, 2003.
|
| "Now
I'm going to name nine Democrats who might run for
president in 2004. After I read all nine names,
tell me which one you would most like to see theDemocrats
nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices
. . . ." |
|
12/4-8 |
10/29-11/3
|
10/23-27 |
9/11-15 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
Wesley Clark |
12 |
12 |
17 |
n/a |
|
Howard Dean |
22 |
15 |
13 |
14 |
| Joe
Lieberman |
13 |
17
|
13 |
14 |
|
Dick Gephardt |
9 |
9
|
12 |
13 |
| John
Kerry |
8 |
11
|
10 |
13 |
| John
Edwards |
5 |
3 |
8 |
7 |
| Al
Sharpton |
8 |
11 |
5 |
4 |
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
3 |
3 |
3 |
7 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
1 |
3 |
|
